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Prediction for CME (2023-06-27T20:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-06-27T20:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25752/-1
CME Note: Wide but faint asymmetrical possibly partial halo CME in the NE in both coronagraphs, seen at start and end in FOV of COR2A before and after the nighttime data gap. Likely source is a slow developing dimming NE of AR 3354 (N15E13) in AIA 193 and EUVI A 195 after 2023-06-27T20Z and a faintly seen filament eruption happening at the same time in AIA/EUVI A 304. Arrival signature is very weak. It is characterized by separation of magnetic field components, as well as an increase in speed and magnetic field intensity from 4 nT to 8 nT.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-06-30T11:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-07-01T04:55Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/25757/1
Model Inputs:
2023-06-27T20:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-26.0, Lat.=18.0, Speed=520.0, HalfAngle=39.0, Time21.5=2023-06-28T03:01Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-07-01T04:55Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =25.5 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.2
(kp)90=4
(kp)180=6

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-06-30T22:56Z
OSIRIS-REx with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-07-02T10:00Z
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-06-29T02:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230628_030100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230628_030100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230628_030100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230628_030100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230628_030100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230628_030100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230628_030100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230628_030100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230628_030100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230628_030100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230628_030100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230628_030100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230628_030100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 42.90 hour(s)
Difference: -17.58 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2023-06-28T16:26Z

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